{"id":386,"date":"2025-10-29T14:10:54","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T06:10:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.midytech.com\/?p=386"},"modified":"2025-10-29T17:15:25","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T09:15:25","slug":"bubble-or-new-era-market-divisions-intensify","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.midytech.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/29\/bubble-or-new-era-market-divisions-intensify\/","title":{"rendered":"Bubble or New Era? Market Divisions Intensify\u200b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

When Nokia’s stock soared 22% in a day over AI concepts, and Microsoft’s OpenAI investment became a $135 billion goldmine, should we feel excited or vigilant?\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week’s capital markets outpaced sci-fi. Nokia, once known for “walnut-crushing” phones, saw its stock jump 22% daily after NVIDIA’s $1 billion AI investment\u2014proof the AI wave lifts even “vintage brands.”\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

More striking: Microsoft’s early \u200b<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

13bi<\/em>ll<\/em>i<\/em>o<\/em>n<\/em>+Op<\/em>e<\/em>n<\/em>A<\/em>I<\/em>in<\/em>v<\/em>es<\/em>t<\/em>m<\/em>e<\/em>n<\/em>t<\/em>n<\/em>o<\/em>w<\/em>v<\/em>a<\/em>l<\/em>u<\/em>es<\/em>a<\/em>t<\/em>135 billion (three times Iceland’s annual GDP). Post-restructuring, the “benefit humanity”-focused AI giant nears a $500 billion valuation.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A Fantasy of Valuation vs. Revenue\u200b<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. stocks have surged: S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ hit intraday highs. Tech leads\u2014NVIDIA rose nearly 5% in a day, Microsoft climbed ~2%, and both Apple and Microsoft briefly topped $4 trillion in market cap.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But beneath the hype, data tells another story.\u200b<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Post-restructuring, OpenAI’s non-profit foundation holds just 26% stake, while Microsoft (27%) is the top shareholder. Despite a multinational-level valuation, the firm made only $4.3 billion in H1 2025\u2014over 116x valuation-to-revenue, unthinkable in traditional industries.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global AI venture capital hit $121.9 billion in H1 2025 (53% of total global VC). Yet MIT reports 95% of AI firms haven\u2019t turned commercial profits\u2014creating a “rampant investment, muted returns” cycle.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Worse is “industrial chain idling”: 37% of $400 billion global AI infrastructure investment circulates within the chain. A single broken link could trigger a collapse.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is Nokia’s “Second Spring” a Transformation or Hype?\u200b<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NVIDIA\u2019s Nokia investment made “veteran users” say “my youth is back,” but Nokia is no longer a phone giant\u2014it\u2019s a communications equipment firm. The $1 billion funds Nokia\u2019s AI plans, and the pair will co-develop 6G.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether this is real transformation or market hype needs time to verify. Notably, as capital chases AI, gold corrected\u2014spot gold and gold futures fell below $4,000. “Abandon gold for AI” signals capital\u2019s enthusiasm for tech revolution.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OpenAI’s Restructuring: Drifting From Its Original Mission\u200b<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

OpenAI completed restructuring this Tuesday, becoming a for-profit entity controlled by a non-profit. The year-long legal battle ended.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under the new structure: non-profit OpenAI Foundation controls the OpenAI Group public benefit firm. The foundation has 26% of the for-profit arm, Microsoft holds ~27% ($135 billion value), and 47% goes to other investors and employees.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This seems to balance R&D funding needs and “benefit humanity” goals, but flaws exist.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2019 “100x profit cap” for the for-profit subsidiary was changed to “dynamic adjustment” in restructuring. The public benefit firm\u2019s legal framework allows higher profit shares.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft\u2019s deep tie-up shows capital dominance. Per the new deal, OpenAI will buy $250 billion of Azure cloud services, and Microsoft gets OpenAI\u2019s model IP rights until 2032\u2014even if OpenAI achieves AGI.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elon Musk\u2019s opposition isn\u2019t baseless. The OpenAI co-founder\u2019s $97.4 billion acquisition offer was rejected, and his lawsuit claims “commercialization violates the founding agreement.” While the foundation says it retains decision-making power, 26% stake\u2019s ability to resist capital\u2019s short-term return demands is doubtful.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chip Giants Validate the “Water Seller First” Law in AI\u200b<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AI boom benefits not just algorithm firms but hardware makers. SK Hynix\u2019s Q3 operating profit jumped 62% to 11.38 trillion won (~$7.94 billion)\u2014a record high.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As NVIDIA\u2019s major memory chip supplier, strong AI-driven memory demand fueled its profits\u2014like the gold rush: miners may not profit, but shovel sellers do.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NVIDIA\u2019s P\/E ratio hit 51x when its market cap topped $4 trillion; Super Micro Computer\u2019s P\/E exceeded 800x after a 3x annual stock surge\u2014far beyond traditional value metrics.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even PayPal joins the AI trend, partnering with OpenAI to integrate services into ChatGPT. No one wants to miss the AI wave.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bubble or New Era? Market Divisions Intensify\u200b<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enthusiasm aside, doubts persist. Bank of America\u2019s survey calls the AI bubble the top “tail risk” for investors, while Goldman Sachs says AI will add $20 trillion to the U.S. economy.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The divide lies in “value realization cycle” views. Ark Invest\u2019s Cathie Wood argues: “If AI expectations hold, we\u2019re at the start of a tech revolution.”\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regardless, two trends are clear:\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, infrastructure investment dividends fade. 2025 tech giant capex rose 40% YoY, but Wall Street is cutting holdings in heat dissipation and chips. This follows tech transformation rules: enablers profit first, value finally settles at the application level.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, vertical implementation is key. Unlike OpenAI\u2019s “comprehensive” approach, DeepSeek penetrates vertical scenarios via low-cost strategies. Tencent used AI to boost ad matching accuracy (20% marketing revenue growth); Alibaba\u2019s AI products saw 7 straight quarters of triple-digit growth. These prove AI\u2019s value shifts from “demonstration brilliance” to “solving practical problems.”\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When capital cools, we\u2019ll see AI\u2019s true face. OpenAI\u2019s restructuring is a stone in the AI lake, creating far-reaching ripples.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Behind \u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

500bi<\/em>ll<\/em>i<\/em>o<\/em>n<\/em>v<\/em>a<\/em>l<\/em>u<\/em>a<\/em>t<\/em>i<\/em>o<\/em>ni<\/em>sc<\/em>a<\/em>p<\/em>i<\/em>t<\/em>a<\/em>l<\/em>\u2019s<\/em>A<\/em>G<\/em>I<\/em>f<\/em>an<\/em>t<\/em>a<\/em>sy<\/em>;4.3 billion revenue reminds us of tech implementation hardships. If AI changes the world, everyone should benefit, not just watch. After all, tech\u2019s true value lies in improving ordinary people\u2019s lives.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When Nokia’s stock soare…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":388,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,8,6],"tags":[25,24,26,33,31,32],"class_list":["post-386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-companies","category-deep-tech","category-people","tag-agent","tag-ai","tag-deep-tech","tag-microsoft","tag-nokia","tag-openai"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.midytech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.midytech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.midytech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.midytech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.midytech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=386"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.midytech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/386\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":389,"href":"https:\/\/www.midytech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/386\/revisions\/389"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.midytech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/388"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.midytech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.midytech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.midytech.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}